Wait for it....

So, this week is when I officially switched from selling to buying.  This is of course extremely anecdotal and based only on my server (and furthermore, on my minimal playtime), but I get the feeling that now is the appropriate time to bargain hunt in order to get ready for December 7th.  I think many of the players that were hanging on to raiding, PvP, etc. a few weeks after 4.0.1 are now in "break mode."  We've seen the new talents in action, have a sense for what's coming, and I just don't see as much activity from people buying stuff or even playing.  And certainly not the higher margin enchants, gems, etc. that have been my bread and butter.  I also think that the pre-expansion bank emptying process is underway, in some regards, so bargains abound.

Timing is everything, and while there's some margin for error, I'll definitely be scouring for the items I mentioned before -- and those listed by many other great blog guides -- to fill up my bank before Cataclysm.  Based on looking at some of the blogs on my blogroll, it looks like a few folks out there have been burned by speculative items/rep grinding, so I feel for them but view it as validation (to some small extent) for my pretty boring AH existence.

Anyhow, as far as value items (measured by price-per-slot), abyss crystals are darn cheap right now.  Maybe it's people DE'ing their old gear as part of wrapping up this expansion, maybe it's people buying the honor PvP shield and DE'ing it (something I'm not a fan of, by the way).  Either way, I bought a ton of crystals at 17g the past few days.  It varies, sure, but overall these and other enchanting materials seem to be declining.

Bring it on, I say.  Holding onto abyss crystals is virtually no-risk, as you can just shatter them and sell the mats if needed as there will undoubtedly be a sufficient market in Cataclysm.  The functional lack of deposit fees is also a reason I love enchanting mats or scrolls.  Rare-quality gems have been a time/money sink lately, and I'll likely just cut and vendor the bulk of my piles leftover from the past few months.  N.B. the shatter-to-profit point has been made by others, again I'm not trying to plagiarize.  It's just an illustration of timing the market to increase future earnings.  Buy low, sell high, right?

As an aside, I've been working on leveling a shaman and really love it.  I actually enjoy healing more on the shaman than my paladin at the moment.  My shaman, by sheer coincidence, is also on the server of another respected gold blogger, so it's fun to watch an expert in action from the sidelines.  Still, it's all time-killing until I dust off the pally in December.

Happy hunting!

A quick comment on the concept of "price gouging"

Real life has dictated that I apply efforts elsewhere the past week (i.e., correctly aligned my priorities), but when listening to the most recent episode of the otherwise excellent Call to Auction podcast the other day I was befuddled by their stumbling over the concept of price gouging in WoW.

Without totally rehashing the conversation, due to a bug (presumably) a glyph that was formerly craftable is no longer readily available. Therefore *ta da* it is pretty expensive until this error is fixed. A somewhat extensive debate occurred in the CtA podcast about the ethics of marking this up a tremendous amount vis a vis the term price gouging. I disagree wholeheartedly. Price gouging in the real world has legal ramifications and is, in most cases, wrong. WoW is a game and the axiom "whatever the market will bear" should be the only mandate by which you operate. A legion of professional and amateur blogs exist to demonstrate how to capitalize on inefficiencies, and all of the sudden there's an implied tipping point where profit margins cease to be ethical?

Buying items en masse and flipping them? Check.
Setting up an assembly line? De rigeur.
Cornering a market? Pro.
Taking a very low supply item and squeezing all the juice you can out of it? Whoa, whoa, now you've crossed a line.

It's like they said "we're ok with 750% margins, but 1000% margins are immoral!" I'm cartooning things and harping on a somewhat small topic, but it's been gnawing at me a bit. It's a conversation that shouldn't have even existed, and I guess that's my end point.

Better and less incendiary posts to follow, I promise...

The next step in WoW profiteering

Ok, so this post will be a bit off-the-wall, and I'm hoping more to generate comments than anything else. The gold blog community is awash in amazing posts right now with detailed lists on items to stockpile, items to dump, items to flip, and items to avoid. I can't say it enough, that's awesome. I would not describe my forte as being able to track down or even analyze item-related trends. I don't have the time or focus.

However, something that I've been mulling for a while and has been recently quasi-confirmed, is how the future of true WoW profit will arise. To somewhat cartoon it a bit, I think there are three main levels within the WoW economy:

Commodities or "origination"
This is the bread and butter of trade in WoW. Ore, leather, etc. Ok, we all get that. You originate the materials.

Value add items
This is the second tier of production, where a commodity is modified to add value. Cutting a raw gem is a fine example, or crafting blacksmithing items. If the commodity business is the bread and butter, this is the meat and potatoes (geesh, sorry, I'm writing this while Horde is finishing another lopsided loss in Wintergrasp). No explanation needed, really.

Derivative profiteering
Most auctioneers fall into this category, on a small scale. Identify disequilibrium, profit, etc. No lecture needed for this part. HOWEVER, here's where it gets interesting. For a few months now, I've wondered when someone would string it all together and try to run an actual business in WoW. This is a truly derivative activity, and I'm not aware of it being done yet. It could take the form of insurance/annuities, or even basic savings/investment management (i.e., some poor soul who doesn't like to farm and is afraid of the AH gives you his hard earned 1k gold and you agree to pay interest on it or invest it and take a cut of the profit). The issues of collateral and counterparty risk are significant enough that I can see why this isn't common. I have read a few blurbs about it existing in another online game, but again I don't have time to research it and I'm not sure if it's an apples to apples comparison.

When I saw a post on another blog highlighting a new pay-based "remote auction house bot" that allows you to use the remote AH to buy/flip items, I thought two things: "uh oh" and "oh boy." I do not use this addon, nor can I see myself doing so. However, I think this is a watershed event. The program itself turns AHers into, essentially, day traders. Granted, the 200/day post limit is still hard-wired by Blizz, but I hope the significance of this is apparent...

Anyhow, I don't have any answers, and as stated originally I view this post as one long question. The comments I've received on this blog so far have been insightful and intelligent, so how do YOU feel about these developments? Where is WoW heading re: finance? Are there any true banks in WoW that you know of, and if not how long will it be?